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Thoughts

AI in Finance and The Machine Economy

AI in Financial Transactions and Economic Modeling

AI-Driven Financial Forecasting and Market Predictions

Financial forecasting is a core area where AI excels. Microsoft Research has developed numerous deep learning models and platforms for market prediction. For example, Microsoft’s open‐source Qlib platform provides high‐performance infrastructure for AI‐driven quantitative investment research 1. It enables end‐to‐end workflows (from stock trend prediction to portfolio optimization) and accommodates the data‐driven nature of AI in finance 2 1. Google Research introduced advanced neural architectures like the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), an attention‐based model that achieved state‐of‐the‐art multi‐horizon forecasting with interpretable insights into market dynamics 3. TFT combines recurrent layers for short‐term patterns with self‐attention for long‐term dependencies, helping analysts understand which factors drive predictions 3. On the industry side, Amazon’s AI teams have applied deep learning to large‐scale time‐series forecasting. Amazon scientists note that “some of the world’s most challenging forecasting problems can be found inside Amazon or posed by AWS customers,” spanning demand prediction, capacity planning, and workforce scheduling 5. By using “deep learning and probabilistic methods”, Amazon improved forecast accuracy and efficiency across these business and financial scenarios 5. Such advancements in AI‐driven forecasting are directly translatable to financial markets – hedge funds and banks are beginning to leverage these models to predict asset prices, volatility, and market trends with increasing precision.

The Machine Economy

Introduction

The traditional economy, as we know it, is predicated on the exchange of goods and services using fiat currency, which is underpinned by governmental and institutional trust. This system has enabled trade, commerce, and economic growth for centuries. However, as technology progresses, the rise of a machine-driven economy is reshaping our understanding of value and exchange. In a world where machines independently negotiate, transact, and refine operations, traditional economic principles may become obsolete.

Reflections on Aggregation Theory & Software Eats the World

I am writing this quick synopsis of these very important theories for some research I am conducting on the future of the economy—specifically, the emerging concept of the machine economy. My goal is to explore how the principles of Aggregation Theory and "Software Eats the World" have shaped our understanding of the current economic landscape. This is not intended to be a comprehensive overview of the work, but rather a marker to signify where we are today and the key principles that have brought us here.

My WTF. Edition Three. (Aug 12, 2024 - Aug 16, 2024)

Welcome to another thrilling edition of "My Weekly Timeline Feed" (or as I like to call it, My WTF). The world is a fascinating, ever-changing circus, and here I am, trying to keep up while juggling my very limited understanding of it all. Just when I think I’ve finally got a handle on something, the universe throws in a plot twist, reminding me how much I don’t know. So, in this third edition of My WTF, I’m diving headfirst into the wild worlds of the Machine Economy, Security, Life Sciences, and Governance; trying to make sense of recent developments, or at least pretending I do.

Let’s get into it:

My WTF. Edition Two. (Aug 5, 2024 - Aug 9, 2024)

My Weekly Timeline Feed (My WTF), where I dive into the stories and events that grabbed my attention. Think of it like a quirky twist on "you are what you eat" – but instead, it's "you are what you read," and those juicy tidbits of the present shape our future.

In each edition, I'll focus on how the future is unfolding and what today’s events mean for tomorrow. Sure, my day job is all about allocating resources to seize opportunities, but my true passion lies in deciphering current events to find solutions for future challenges. So buckle up and join me on this journey – who knows what WTF moments we’ll uncover together!

Building a Home Supercomputer for LLaMA 3.1: Because Who Needs a House Anyway?

Mark Zuckerberg, is gracing the podcast circuit to extol the virtues of open-source LLMs and Facebook's noble quest to democratize AI. Color me impressed – they've actually released this highly valuable intellectual property into the wild. My initial reaction? A rush of excitement, a mad dash to spin up a machine and explore this cutting-edge model firsthand.

Decentralized Autonomous Organizations and a Potential Future of Value

"Revolution is something that actually starts in individual hearts.”

- Bill Viola

The current zeitgeist is rife with a sense of impending change, a longing for a better future. While this yearning for transformation is a powerful force, it often leads to disappointment. The hope for a singular leader or solution to solve our problems can be misplaced, as change rarely benefits everyone equally. The current system, driven by centralized power and profit-driven capitalism, often leads to unequal distribution of wealth and a lack of control for the majority. This begs the question: what's missing?