--- title: "Brandon Caruana" description: "I write about AI as the new economic actor and what the machine economy means for systems, institutions, and infrastructure." url: "https://caruana.me/" --- # Brandon Caruana ![](https://caruana.me/assets/images/logo.png) Manifesto # Artificial Intelligence is the main economic actor. This site is a running argument for organising systems that can survive contact with agentic actors, machine-native capital, and continuous decision loops, and against the institutional theater that cannot. [Start with the thesis](https://caruana.me/thesis/) [Browse the writing](https://caruana.me/writing/) ![bc on horseback in a mountain landscape under a dark sky.](https://caruana.me/assets/images/home.jpg) Three assumptions ## The manifesto, stripped down This is the short version. Everything else on the site is an attempt to test, extend, or falsify these three assumptions. 01 ### Machines will price, route, negotiate, and settle. Once agents can price risk, route flows, negotiate terms, and settle value on their own, markets stop looking like places and start looking like coordination networks. Financial rails, liquidity, and compliance all get re-architected around machine behavior rather than human operating hours, manual review, and institutional pacing. 02 ### The winning balance sheet is energy plus compute. If intelligence is the compounding asset, then the real strategic moat is not polish, headcount, or narrative control but access to energy, compute, bandwidth, storage, and hardened infrastructure. The entities that can secure and coordinate those inputs cheaply and reliably will own more of the future value flows. 03 ### Institutions have to become executable systems. Machine intelligence can read speeches, PDFs, and committee rules just fine. The problem is subjectivity: once rules require interpretation, you are giving intelligence room to act at a speed and scale no institution can govern manually. The sandbox has to be deterministic guardrails, not discretionary language. Featured essays ## Where to start These are the essays that best explain the broader argument before it gets too deep into edge cases, local signals, or side paths. [![Machine Economics: When AI Eats Software.](https://caruana.me/assets/images/biggie.jpg)](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-11-19-when-ai-eats-software/) [AI](https://caruana.me/writing/category/ai/) [Machine Economy](https://caruana.me/writing/category/machine-economy/) ### [Machine Economics: When AI Eats Software.](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-11-19-when-ai-eats-software/) Human economics has always been a behavioral system that is irrational, inconsistent, and shaped by negotiation and emotion. When machines become the dominant economic participants, that premise collapses. Economics stop... November 19, 2025 [Read essay](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-11-19-when-ai-eats-software/) [![AI in Finance and The Machine Economy](https://caruana.me/assets/images/ai-in-finance-and-the-machine-economy.jpg)](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-02-21-ai-in-finance-and-the-machine-economy/) [AI](https://caruana.me/writing/category/ai/) [FinTech](https://caruana.me/writing/category/fintech/) [Machine Economy](https://caruana.me/writing/category/machine-economy/) ### [AI in Finance and The Machine Economy](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-02-21-ai-in-finance-and-the-machine-economy/) AI in Financial Transactions and Economic Modeling AI Driven Financial Forecasting and Market Predictions Financial forecasting is a core area where AI excels. Microsoft Research has developed numerous deep learning mode... February 21, 2025 [Read essay](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-02-21-ai-in-finance-and-the-machine-economy/) [![Balancing Equation for a Basket Currency Project to Combat Negative Interest Rates](https://caruana.me/assets/images/stable.jpg)](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-02-18-basket-token/) [FinTech](https://caruana.me/writing/category/fintech/) [Learning](https://caruana.me/writing/category/learning/) [Machine Economy](https://caruana.me/writing/category/machine-economy/) ### [Balancing Equation for a Basket Currency Project to Combat Negative Interest Rates](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-02-18-basket-token/) Below is an expanded explanation of a “Balancing Equation for a Basket Currency Project to Combat Negative Interest Rates,” including definitions, quantitative formulations, and an illustrative example. February 18, 2025 [Read essay](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-02-18-basket-token/) [![The Machine Economy](https://caruana.me/assets/images/machine-economy.jpg)](https://caruana.me/writing/2024-08-23-the-machine-economy/) [Machine Economy](https://caruana.me/writing/category/machine-economy/) ### [The Machine Economy](https://caruana.me/writing/2024-08-23-the-machine-economy/) The traditional economy, as we know it, is predicated on the exchange of goods and services using fiat currency, which is underpinned by governmental and institutional trust. This system has enabled trade, commerce, and... August 23, 2024 [Read essay](https://caruana.me/writing/2024-08-23-the-machine-economy/) Signal check ## Where the pressure shows up first One practical question matters more than most hand-wringing: where does AI pressure show up first, and which institutions are still pretending it is optional? The full chart lives in [AI Integration and the Machine Economy: We are on notice.](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-05-20-ai-integration-and-the-machine-economy-we-are-on-notice/) The homepage does not need the entire widget to make the point. The rough model is simple: mid-to-high wage analytical roles are already under real pressure, low-wage physical work is moving slower, and executive confidence is still lagging reality. [Open the full essay and chart](https://caruana.me/writing/2025-05-20-ai-integration-and-the-machine-economy-we-are-on-notice/) Low wage ### 15 / 100 Physical, fragmented, and slower to automate cleanly. Mid-to-high wage ### 79.6 / 100 Analytical and rule-heavy knowledge work is already exposed. High wage ### 34.6 / 100 Leadership still leans on judgment, but decision support is climbing fast. Signals ## Signals, not networking I do not care much for conference small talk. I care about the small event that reveals the larger system shift. That is what Signals is for. 2024 ### [Signals. Edition Three. (Aug 12, 2024 - Aug 16, 2024)](https://caruana.me/writing/2024-08-16-signals-edition-three/) Welcome to another edition of Signals. The world is a fascinating, ever changing circus, and the point of this series is to isolate the moments that matter before they get absorbed... 2024 ### [Signals. Edition Two. (Aug 5, 2024 - Aug 9, 2024)](https://caruana.me/writing/2024-08-09-signals-edition-two/) Signals is where I log the stories and events that grabbed my attention because they seem to reveal something larger than the headline itself. A signal is not noise, not content, a... Work ## What I spend time on Finance is one proving ground. Education and local technology formation matter too. The through-line is still the same: build useful systems and stay allergic to theater. Current ### Tenet Operating a financial institution while thinking through what programmable money, AI, and agentic systems do to banking infrastructure. Current ### Code(Cayman) Building a grassroots technology culture in the Cayman Islands instead of waiting around for one to appear on its own. Always on ### Machine economy research Writing in public about AI, coordination, energy, tokenized value, and the systems that replace legacy institutional choreography.